I’m back. My gorgeous little boy turned one last month and what a year it was. Now that he is healthy and happy, I thought it was time to reconnect with the world again. While I have managed to keep abreast of what has been happening in Tasmania economically, politically and socially, I have to admit being a full time mum has prevented me from digesting and analysing all the relevant information, policies and data sufficiently enough to provide you all with an insightful newsletter, InSummary.
Also last month, I presented to the Tasmanian Council of Professional Services a snap shot of population ageing, Tasmania and the implications for the labour market. During the time that Rory was sleeping, I beavered away; analysing data and policies, developing charts and working out ways to present the information which is sometimes overwhelming and often misunderstood in an informative, educational and challenging way. During this time, I had more energy, felt less tired, was engaged in the workforce again, was highly productive, was happier, and, more than likely, a better mother.
This scenario begged the question, if I could be both a good mum and highly productive in the workforce, why not consider a higher level of engagement in the labour market? Given I have no family in Hobart, I had to find formal care for Rory for the days that I would be working. Not only are most childcare services ‘full’, I discovered that we would not be entitled to any government concessions or rebates due to combined income assessments. In addition, we did not receive the Baby Bonus and are not entitled to any ongoing Family Tax Benefits. So, when I consider the cost of care and that almost half my income would go in taxes (from which I do not benefit), the next question is why would I, a highly educated, skilled, productive person, return to the workforce when there is no foreseeable financial gain? Any benefits would be purely self-fulfilling.
I know I am not alone.
With population ageing, shrinking workforces and skill shortages this is a ludicrous scenario.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Friday, July 2, 2010
tasmanianjobs.com announcement
advertising with tasmanianjobs.com is now FREE
What: All employment vacancies
All education and training courses
How: Login as an advertiser at http://www.tasmanianjobs.com/ (or register as an advertiser at http://www.tasmanianjobs.com/advertise/register/)
Follow the prompts to advertise
Why: Instantly connect with over 3500 registered jobseekers
http://www.tasmanianjobs.com/
NB : any design, management or administration of advertising campaigns will continue to incur management fees as agreed prior to advertising.
Should you be interested in sponsoring, contributing to or advertising in the regular InSummary newsletter or quarterly job seeker newsletter, please contact me.
What: All employment vacancies
All education and training courses
How: Login as an advertiser at http://www.tasmanianjobs.com/ (or register as an advertiser at http://www.tasmanianjobs.com/advertise/register/)
Follow the prompts to advertise
Why: Instantly connect with over 3500 registered jobseekers
http://www.tasmanianjobs.com/
NB : any design, management or administration of advertising campaigns will continue to incur management fees as agreed prior to advertising.
Should you be interested in sponsoring, contributing to or advertising in the regular InSummary newsletter or quarterly job seeker newsletter, please contact me.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Studying interstate and the impact on skill shortages
We know, and accept, that Tasmania is the oldest state in Australia, that we are ageing at a faster rate than any other state and that there are more people exiting the workforce than entering it. We know, and accept, that the ageing of the state is due to longer life expectancies, migration and, until recently, loss of people in the working age groups and thus reproductive age groups. Tasmania recently surpassed the Northern Territory for the highest birth rate and we are now producing children at a greater rate than the replacement rate (2.1 births per woman). This could be due to a number of reasons, all of which we are unable to detail here. However, one reason may be that, encouragingly, Tasmania is closing the gap on interstate migration losses to other states.
In 2002/03, Tasmania reverted from ongoing annual net losses in interstate migration, to a gain. Since then, apart from 2006/07, Tasmania has been welcoming more people to our state than fare welling. However, hidden in these numbers has been that we had continued to lose more people than we gained in the working age groups. This loss has now been contained to the 15 to 29 year old age group for the past three years.
Interstate movements are recorded and reported by Medicare, therefore we can not ascertain the specific reasons for this age group leaving the state. However, anecdotal evidence and a process of elimination would indicate the following reasons could be significant contributors:
• Employment opportunities
• Travel
• ‘greener pastures’
• Relocating with family/friends
• Study
Many post-school and tertiary education courses are not provided in Tasmania, in particular allied health professions. Below is a true example of a young Tasmanian’s experience in having to study interstate.
Case Study: Anna completed year 12 in Hobart in 1996. With a desire to become a physiotherapist, but realising she could not study in Tasmania, Anna was successful in being awarded a $20,000 per year scholarship by the Department of Health and Human Services (DHSS) to study interstate. Anna was accepted to the University of NSW. Wanting to live and work in Tasmania when she completed her studies, Anna would contact the DHHS seeking placements in Tasmania for all of her rounds. She was advised that this was not possible as they had an existing arrangement with the University of Adelaide. Upon completion of her qualification, Anna still wished to return to Tasmania and applied for positions in Hobart, Launceston and the North West. Following up with the DHHS after being unsuccessful, she was advised that while her grades were good, they were not as good as other applicants. Anna worked interstate as a physio for a number of years before recently returning to Hobart, with her husband, but is no longer working as a Physiotherapist.
Conclusion: Given the age structure of our population and the rate of ageing, demand for occupations in the allied health professions will increase significantly, in a short time period. Regardless of whether or not our young people receive a scholarship to study interstate, we should be ensuring that there is a process in place to provide placement training and employment opportunities to Tasmanians wishing to return home.
Importantly, any strategy should not be limited to those in the allied health professions, but any occupation where education and/or training is not provided here.
In 2002/03, Tasmania reverted from ongoing annual net losses in interstate migration, to a gain. Since then, apart from 2006/07, Tasmania has been welcoming more people to our state than fare welling. However, hidden in these numbers has been that we had continued to lose more people than we gained in the working age groups. This loss has now been contained to the 15 to 29 year old age group for the past three years.
Interstate movements are recorded and reported by Medicare, therefore we can not ascertain the specific reasons for this age group leaving the state. However, anecdotal evidence and a process of elimination would indicate the following reasons could be significant contributors:
• Employment opportunities
• Travel
• ‘greener pastures’
• Relocating with family/friends
• Study
Many post-school and tertiary education courses are not provided in Tasmania, in particular allied health professions. Below is a true example of a young Tasmanian’s experience in having to study interstate.
Case Study: Anna completed year 12 in Hobart in 1996. With a desire to become a physiotherapist, but realising she could not study in Tasmania, Anna was successful in being awarded a $20,000 per year scholarship by the Department of Health and Human Services (DHSS) to study interstate. Anna was accepted to the University of NSW. Wanting to live and work in Tasmania when she completed her studies, Anna would contact the DHHS seeking placements in Tasmania for all of her rounds. She was advised that this was not possible as they had an existing arrangement with the University of Adelaide. Upon completion of her qualification, Anna still wished to return to Tasmania and applied for positions in Hobart, Launceston and the North West. Following up with the DHHS after being unsuccessful, she was advised that while her grades were good, they were not as good as other applicants. Anna worked interstate as a physio for a number of years before recently returning to Hobart, with her husband, but is no longer working as a Physiotherapist.
Conclusion: Given the age structure of our population and the rate of ageing, demand for occupations in the allied health professions will increase significantly, in a short time period. Regardless of whether or not our young people receive a scholarship to study interstate, we should be ensuring that there is a process in place to provide placement training and employment opportunities to Tasmanians wishing to return home.
Importantly, any strategy should not be limited to those in the allied health professions, but any occupation where education and/or training is not provided here.
Skill shortages on a personal note
I have been making a noise about skill shortages in Tasmania since 2004, but now it has gotten personal. My son Rory was born with a cleft palate and conductive hearing loss. At six months he was supposed to have surgery to repair the cleft and insert grommets to (hopefully) fix his hearing, not only did we ‘slip through the cracks’ once, but we had the surgery cancelled 20 minutes before scheduled due to staff shortages and not enough skilled nursing staff to provide the level of care he would need post-op. Further investigation revealed that the Royal Hobart Hospital is incredibly short of paediatric intensifists with almost 100% turnover. Since Rory was born he has seen, many ongoing, a paediatrician, sonographer, audiologist, plastic surgeon, ear nose and throat surgeon, osteopath, physiotherapist, speech pathologist, orthotist, radiographer, GP and clinic health nurse. The majority of these occupations are not educated in Tasmania and I am indescribably thankful that these wonderfully professional people have all chosen to live and work in Tasmania. Rory has since had his surgery, and four weeks in things are looking up.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Industry Life Cycles
Much like product life cycles, industries experience a similar cycle of life, capturing the way many industries evolve through their formative eras, growth and patterns of maturity. Just as a product is developed, introduced to the market, adopted, grows, matures, and eventually experiences decline, so too do industries. The stages are the same for all industries, yet industries cycle through the stages in various lengths of time. Even within the same industry, various organisations may be at different life cycle stages. Strategies of an organisation as well as of competitors vary depending on the stage of the life cycle. Some industries need to make strategic decisions during the maturity phase to extend the life, and even find new uses for declining products, thus extending the life cycle.
The growth of an industry's sales over time is used to chart the life cycle (see right).
The distinct stages of an industry life cycle are: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline.
Important to note is that the life cycle model assumes that an industry is clearly distinguishable, however in many instances emerging industries are hard to define, and often appear as segments of established industries.
Overview:
Industries begin in a period of fragmentation as companies experiment with different approaches. With time, a scalable approach emerges as a dominant model, often because it yields greater efficiencies than available alternatives. As the dominant model develops, an industry goes through a shakeout as unaligned organisations are forced to exit. Eventually, organisations find it difficult to improve their productivity on the dominant model at high rates, volume growth hits a point of diminishing returns, and the industry enters maturity. Ultimately, as volumes drop because of saturated demand, exhausted supply or uncompetitive environments, the industry moves into decline.
Each of the phases carries implications for how organisations organise, compete and exploit technical progress. The emergence of a dominant model is critically important to industry evolution because these models generate opportunities to achieve economies of scale and scope. Industries eventually enter a mature phase in which volume growth slows down because organisations hit the limits of technical opportunity in the dominant model. Organisations often shed activities that could be subcontracted efficiently, and pared down product lines to enhance efficiency incrementally. An industry moves into decline when aggregate sales volume drops. Avoiding a war of attrition becomes a major strategic imperative. Inefficient organisations may diversify out of the industry and may seek to consolidate.
Introduction
In the introduction stage of the life cycle, an industry is in its infancy. A new, unique product or service offering may have been developed and patented, thus beginning a new industry. At this stage, an organisation may be alone in the industry. It may be a small entrepreneurial company or a proven company which used research and development funds and expertise to develop something new. Significant financial investment is undertaken at this stage of the life cycle, often without financial reward. Organisations attempt to establish a niche for dominance within an industry during this phase by establishing early perceptions of product or service quality, technological superiority, or advantageous relationships with vendors within the supply chain to develop a competitive advantage.
Growth
During the growth phase more organisations identify opportunities within the industry. The industry experiences more product standardisation at this stage, which may encourage economies of scale and facilitate development for production efficiency. The key issue in this stage is market rivalry. Because there is industry-wide acceptance of the product, more new entrants join the industry and more intense competition results. The duration of the growth stage, as all the other stages, depends on the particular industry. During the growth stage, the life cycle curve is very steep, indicating fast growth, however financial investment remains a significant requirement to facilitate this growth through such activities as marketing, property, plant and equipment investment and ongoing product development (R+D).
Maturity
As the industry approaches maturity and demand for the product or service lessens, the industry life cycle curve becomes noticeably flatter, indicating slowing growth, however profit margins may continue to increase. In mature industries, there are usually fewer organisations, and those that survive will be larger and more dominant. Organisations may compete on quality to separate their product from other lower-cost offerings, or conversely the organisation may try a low-cost/low-price strategy to increase the volume of sales and make profits from inventory turnover.
Decline
Declines are almost inevitable in an industry. If product innovation has not kept pace with other competitors, or if new innovations or technological changes have caused the industry to become obsolete, sales suffer and the life cycle experiences a decline. In this phase, sales are decreasing at an accelerating rate, causing the plotted curve to trend downward. There is usually another, larger shake-out in the industry as competitors who did not leave during the maturity stage now exit the industry. Yet some organisations will remain to compete in the smaller market. Mergers and consolidations will also be the norm as organisations try other strategies to continue to be competitive or grow through acquisition and/or diversification.
Prolonging the life cycle
The life of an industry or organisation can be prolonged through strategic efforts to maximize profits through increasing efficiencies. Management efficiency can help to prolong the maturity stage of the life cycle. Production improvements, like just-in-time methods and lean manufacturing, can result in extra profits. Technology, automation, and linking suppliers and customers in a tight supply chain are also methods to improve efficiency. Alternatively, the strategy may be to differentiate the product or service offering based on quality. Research indicates that those industries and organisations that survive longer are those that are the most strategic, forward thinking and innovative for the duration of the life cycle, often with ongoing and superior commitments to research and development, post entry into the market. In addition, it is those organisations that innovate and develop an industry (early entrants) that tend to survive longer than later entrants to the market. However, it is also important to note that it is the structure of demand which is just as important to industry success as innovation and technological capability.
Conclusion
Many of the large organisations that have closed their doors, or scaled down operations, in Tasmania in recent years have been in the traditional, predominantly manufacturing, industry sectors and generally owned by national or multinational companies. While regarded as ‘institutions’ of the regions in which they were located, it is this length of time of establishment which has contributed to the ultimate closing of the plants in Tasmania. Each has been in the maturity phase of the industry life cycle, and essentially the strategic approach by management has been to increase efficiencies and prolong the industry/organisation by reducing costs and consolidation.
Examples of the issues faced by these companies have included:
• Inability to maximize economies of scale
• Decentralised industry/organisation
• Increased operating costs
• Increasingly uncompetitive due to labour costs and geographical location
• Declining demand
• Lack of ongoing investment in research and development, skills and plant and equipment
• Requirement to innovate and differentiate product offering
• Ageing infrastructure
• Lack of skill base
Wish list for the new Government
Based on the discussions above and to ensure ongoing economic growth and employment opportunities for Tasmanians, the following is a wish list for our newly elected government to consider.
• Cease propping up businesses in the maturity/decline phases of the industry life cycle
• Proactively encourage investment in industries that take advantage of Tasmania’s competitive and comparative advantages
• Support the investment in research and development for Tasmanian based companies in priority industry sectors
• Provide a competitive business environment
• Assist industries/organisations strategic development and capability to adapt in the face of change
• Work with industry, employers and unions to ensure that workers are undertaking ongoing skill and workforce development to enable transfer between industry sectors
• Provide post year 10 education and training aligned with industry needs that will enable Tasmanians to secure employment into the future.
The growth of an industry's sales over time is used to chart the life cycle (see right).
The distinct stages of an industry life cycle are: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline.
Important to note is that the life cycle model assumes that an industry is clearly distinguishable, however in many instances emerging industries are hard to define, and often appear as segments of established industries.
Overview:
Industries begin in a period of fragmentation as companies experiment with different approaches. With time, a scalable approach emerges as a dominant model, often because it yields greater efficiencies than available alternatives. As the dominant model develops, an industry goes through a shakeout as unaligned organisations are forced to exit. Eventually, organisations find it difficult to improve their productivity on the dominant model at high rates, volume growth hits a point of diminishing returns, and the industry enters maturity. Ultimately, as volumes drop because of saturated demand, exhausted supply or uncompetitive environments, the industry moves into decline.
Each of the phases carries implications for how organisations organise, compete and exploit technical progress. The emergence of a dominant model is critically important to industry evolution because these models generate opportunities to achieve economies of scale and scope. Industries eventually enter a mature phase in which volume growth slows down because organisations hit the limits of technical opportunity in the dominant model. Organisations often shed activities that could be subcontracted efficiently, and pared down product lines to enhance efficiency incrementally. An industry moves into decline when aggregate sales volume drops. Avoiding a war of attrition becomes a major strategic imperative. Inefficient organisations may diversify out of the industry and may seek to consolidate.
Introduction
In the introduction stage of the life cycle, an industry is in its infancy. A new, unique product or service offering may have been developed and patented, thus beginning a new industry. At this stage, an organisation may be alone in the industry. It may be a small entrepreneurial company or a proven company which used research and development funds and expertise to develop something new. Significant financial investment is undertaken at this stage of the life cycle, often without financial reward. Organisations attempt to establish a niche for dominance within an industry during this phase by establishing early perceptions of product or service quality, technological superiority, or advantageous relationships with vendors within the supply chain to develop a competitive advantage.
Growth
During the growth phase more organisations identify opportunities within the industry. The industry experiences more product standardisation at this stage, which may encourage economies of scale and facilitate development for production efficiency. The key issue in this stage is market rivalry. Because there is industry-wide acceptance of the product, more new entrants join the industry and more intense competition results. The duration of the growth stage, as all the other stages, depends on the particular industry. During the growth stage, the life cycle curve is very steep, indicating fast growth, however financial investment remains a significant requirement to facilitate this growth through such activities as marketing, property, plant and equipment investment and ongoing product development (R+D).
Maturity
As the industry approaches maturity and demand for the product or service lessens, the industry life cycle curve becomes noticeably flatter, indicating slowing growth, however profit margins may continue to increase. In mature industries, there are usually fewer organisations, and those that survive will be larger and more dominant. Organisations may compete on quality to separate their product from other lower-cost offerings, or conversely the organisation may try a low-cost/low-price strategy to increase the volume of sales and make profits from inventory turnover.
Decline
Declines are almost inevitable in an industry. If product innovation has not kept pace with other competitors, or if new innovations or technological changes have caused the industry to become obsolete, sales suffer and the life cycle experiences a decline. In this phase, sales are decreasing at an accelerating rate, causing the plotted curve to trend downward. There is usually another, larger shake-out in the industry as competitors who did not leave during the maturity stage now exit the industry. Yet some organisations will remain to compete in the smaller market. Mergers and consolidations will also be the norm as organisations try other strategies to continue to be competitive or grow through acquisition and/or diversification.
Prolonging the life cycle
The life of an industry or organisation can be prolonged through strategic efforts to maximize profits through increasing efficiencies. Management efficiency can help to prolong the maturity stage of the life cycle. Production improvements, like just-in-time methods and lean manufacturing, can result in extra profits. Technology, automation, and linking suppliers and customers in a tight supply chain are also methods to improve efficiency. Alternatively, the strategy may be to differentiate the product or service offering based on quality. Research indicates that those industries and organisations that survive longer are those that are the most strategic, forward thinking and innovative for the duration of the life cycle, often with ongoing and superior commitments to research and development, post entry into the market. In addition, it is those organisations that innovate and develop an industry (early entrants) that tend to survive longer than later entrants to the market. However, it is also important to note that it is the structure of demand which is just as important to industry success as innovation and technological capability.
Conclusion
Many of the large organisations that have closed their doors, or scaled down operations, in Tasmania in recent years have been in the traditional, predominantly manufacturing, industry sectors and generally owned by national or multinational companies. While regarded as ‘institutions’ of the regions in which they were located, it is this length of time of establishment which has contributed to the ultimate closing of the plants in Tasmania. Each has been in the maturity phase of the industry life cycle, and essentially the strategic approach by management has been to increase efficiencies and prolong the industry/organisation by reducing costs and consolidation.
Examples of the issues faced by these companies have included:
• Inability to maximize economies of scale
• Decentralised industry/organisation
• Increased operating costs
• Increasingly uncompetitive due to labour costs and geographical location
• Declining demand
• Lack of ongoing investment in research and development, skills and plant and equipment
• Requirement to innovate and differentiate product offering
• Ageing infrastructure
• Lack of skill base
Wish list for the new Government
Based on the discussions above and to ensure ongoing economic growth and employment opportunities for Tasmanians, the following is a wish list for our newly elected government to consider.
• Cease propping up businesses in the maturity/decline phases of the industry life cycle
• Proactively encourage investment in industries that take advantage of Tasmania’s competitive and comparative advantages
• Support the investment in research and development for Tasmanian based companies in priority industry sectors
• Provide a competitive business environment
• Assist industries/organisations strategic development and capability to adapt in the face of change
• Work with industry, employers and unions to ensure that workers are undertaking ongoing skill and workforce development to enable transfer between industry sectors
• Provide post year 10 education and training aligned with industry needs that will enable Tasmanians to secure employment into the future.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Times are changing...
Times are changing. In a relatively short period of time the Australian, Tasmanian and worldwide economic climate has dramatically altered. This climate is yet another unprecedented scenario that requires a strategic, well thought out approach on a global scale and further ads to the challenges of the unprecedented scenario of worldwide population ageing.
While initial reactions are to scale back and batten down the hatches to ride out the storm, it is important to keep a longer term strategy in mind in terms of skill and workforce development.
While the current economic climate and the impact on superannuation investments may delay the retirement intentions of the large baby boomer cohort, they will retire eventually. These baby boomers have a wealth of knowledge and experience, qualifications and skills that cannot be replaced overnight. Sooner rather than later, more people will be exiting the workforce than entering it. It is important over the longer term that investment in skill development remains paramount, so that those remaining in the workforce and those entering it are well equipped, educated and appropriately trained to maintain productivity in the workplace.
While initial reactions are to scale back and batten down the hatches to ride out the storm, it is important to keep a longer term strategy in mind in terms of skill and workforce development.
While the current economic climate and the impact on superannuation investments may delay the retirement intentions of the large baby boomer cohort, they will retire eventually. These baby boomers have a wealth of knowledge and experience, qualifications and skills that cannot be replaced overnight. Sooner rather than later, more people will be exiting the workforce than entering it. It is important over the longer term that investment in skill development remains paramount, so that those remaining in the workforce and those entering it are well equipped, educated and appropriately trained to maintain productivity in the workplace.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Women and Work
I have just completed a thesis entitled Women and Work: An investigation of the utilisation of women in the Australian labour market in comparison with men and the impact, if any, of the presence of a partner and/or child.
Abstract: This thesis set out to examine the utilisation of women and women’s qualifications in the Australian labour market as compared with men. It questioned whether the policy proposal of the Commonwealth Government (2004; 2007) to increase the labour force participation rate of women, to offset the emerging gap between fiscal capacity and fiscal commitments resulting from population ageing, could be misguided and could perversely result in lower fertility rates, the very cause of population ageing.
This thesis finds that women are currently not utilised in the labour market to the same degree as men. However, the issue is not their participation rates per se (which have increased over the years) but rather their relatively low level of labour market attachment and utilisation of educational attainment through occupation. For this reason, policy intervention aimed at increasing female labour market utilisation may be a more effective strategy in increasing productivity than focussing on increasing female labour force participation rates as a solution to the potential fiscal impacts of population ageing.
Abstract: This thesis set out to examine the utilisation of women and women’s qualifications in the Australian labour market as compared with men. It questioned whether the policy proposal of the Commonwealth Government (2004; 2007) to increase the labour force participation rate of women, to offset the emerging gap between fiscal capacity and fiscal commitments resulting from population ageing, could be misguided and could perversely result in lower fertility rates, the very cause of population ageing.
This thesis finds that women are currently not utilised in the labour market to the same degree as men. However, the issue is not their participation rates per se (which have increased over the years) but rather their relatively low level of labour market attachment and utilisation of educational attainment through occupation. For this reason, policy intervention aimed at increasing female labour market utilisation may be a more effective strategy in increasing productivity than focussing on increasing female labour force participation rates as a solution to the potential fiscal impacts of population ageing.
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