Tasmania's population debate

Last week's Employer of Choice Conference in Launceston created a media frenzy following Bernard Salt's and Natalie Jackson's presentations on population ageing, the labour market and the implications and opportunities for Tasmania.

All three of Tasmania's state political leaders entered the debate, along with the TCCI and the Sustainable Population Australia Tasmanian branch, however Associate Professor Natalie Jackson, Demographic Analytical Services at the University of Tasmania believes that if there is to be a debate about an optimal size for Tasmania's population, then it is important to understand the following facts:

1. Calls for a debate on an optimal size for Tasmania’s population miss the point about population ageing and composition. Across Australia, even with a net international migration gain of 140,000 per year, the next decade will see the nation’s population aged 65+ grow by 43 per cent while all other age groups combined will grow by only 7 per cent.

2. Similarly, between now and 2028, Australia’s population is projected to grow by 5.8 million (27%), but that will involve a doubling of the population aged 65+ years, against growth of 16% for all other age groups combined.

3. Arguing that we don’t want Tasmania to become a retirement village similarly misses the point. The next 20 years will see relatively wealthier, healthier retirees. It is likely that encouraging more of them to come here – whether to live or to visit -would stimulate the economy enormously; and stimulate jobs in the retail, hospitality and building sectors that would keep more of Tasmania’s young people here. (I [Natalie] have referred to this previously as Clayton’s population growth: the growth you are having when you no longer have growth).

4. Despite the present small increase in birth numbers, the excessive loss of Tasmanians aged 18-38 years over the 1990s continues to play the major role in the state’s future demographic fortunes, as does the continuing net outflow in this demographic. Before thinking about population size per se it would be germane to shore up the glaring bite in the age structure. These are the people who have the babies, keep the schools, retail and housing industry going, and are needed to replace the state’s baby boomers (who incidentally plan to retire earlier than their mainland counterparts). Note that this outflow did not stop even during the recent period of net migration gain, while in the 2006-07 year, net interstate migration removed a further 1,220 persons aged 10-34 years.

5. When talking about growth targets, some thought should be given to when it is hoped they could be achieved by, and thus whether or not they are feasible. For example, to achieve a population size of 600,000 by 2020 would require a consistent annual net migration gain of approximately 4,000 per year. At a net gain of 2,000 per year it could be achieved by the mid-2030s.

6. Tasmania’s ‘low’ population growth needs to be seen in the context of Europe, where zero growth is now the norm and will be permanently so; the result of population ageing. Keep in mind that Australia’s growth rate is unique in the developed world, and in fact is presently above that for the entire world.