ABS Population Projections

Today the ABS released its population projections for the period 30 June 2007 to 2056.

Assuming the medium level assumptions, the ABS Series B projects population growth for all states and territories in Australia, except Tasmania.

Tasmania's population is projected to increase slowly before levelling out by around 2040 and then decreasing marginally from 2051 onwards (571,000 people in 2056). Tasmania's share of population is projected to decline from 2.3% at 30 June 2007 to 1.6% in 2056. During the same period, Tasmania's population is projected to age at a greater rate than any other state or territory with the median age at 30 June 2007 being 39.1 increasing to 45.7 by 2056. Natural increase is also projected to decline during this period, with deaths first exceeding births in 2035–36.

The implications for Tasmania are profound.

Essentially, there will be no end to the current skill and labour shortages we are experiencing. It is projected that more people will be exiting the workforce in Tasmania than entering it by late 2009 or early 2010.

Short to medium term opportunities as a result of an ageing population include greater demand for products and services targeting an active, older age group and an increase in voluntary services to the community.

However, the diminishing supply of labour and subsequent growth in older age groups will place increasing pressures on our health and community services sectors. As a result there will be greater demand for the provision of public services yet are required to be funded by a depleting tax revenue base.

The Tasmanian Government set up the Demographic Change Advisory Council (DCAC) as a key advisory body. The DCAC has released a number of discussion and issues papers relating to demographic change in Tasmania. The DCAC is currently calling for submissions to its latest paper, Strategies Discussion Paper, which details proposed initiatives for addressing the implications of demographic change in Tasmania.

More information about the Demographic Change Advisory Council (and a copy of the Strategies Discussion Paper) is available at http://www.dcac.tas.gov.au/